Thursday, December 10, 2009

Delinquent Boys at Increased Risk of Premature Death and Disability by Middle Age

Men, who have a history of delinquency in childhood, are more likely to die or become disabled by the time they are 48.


The research found that boys who engaged at age 10 in asocial behavior such as skipping school often or being rated troublesome or corrupt by teachers and parents, and then went on to be convicted of a crime by the age of 18, 16.3% (1 in 6) died or become disabled by the age of 48. That equaled to 2.6% (1 in 40) of the boys from the same lower socioeconomic South London neighborhood who were not lawbreaking or fugitives- an almost 7 times difference.


"We were surprised to see such a strong link between these early influences and premature death and this indicates that things that happen in families at age 8-10 are part of a progression towards dying prematurely," said the study's leader, Professor Jonathan Shepherd, Director of the Violence and Society Research Group at Cardiff University in Wales. "It was also surprising that the increase was not limited to substance abuse or other mental health problems known to be linked with an antisocial lifestyle, but included premature death and disability from a wide variety of chronic illnesses such as heart disease, stroke, respiratory disease and cancer."

"At this point, we don't know exactly why delinquency increases the risk of premature death and disability in middle age, but it seems that impulsivity - or lack of self-control - in childhood and adolescence was a common underlying theme. It may be that the stresses and strains of an antisocial lifestyle and having to deal with all the crises that could have been avoided with more self-control takes their toll. It fits with the biological evidence of the effects of chronic stress on illness." Professor Shepherd said.



The test began in 1961 and after the studies were done at ages 16-18, 27-32 and 43-48. By the occasion of the latest results, 389 of the men were still in the course.


17 men died by the age of 48 and 17 of the lasting 365 men watched became disabled. Of 21 probable serious impacts, six were remarkably connected with untimely death and disability.


Rebellious actions at 10 years of age was looped to a three times a chance of dying or getting disabled by 48 (odds ratio: 3.5), premature death or disability was at least three times more likely in boys convicted of a crime between 10-18 years of age (odds ratio 3.0), in the boys convicted between the age of 10 and 40 (odds ratio: 3.5) and in boys at the age of 10 that had a who at age 10 had a parent guilty of a crime, were detached from a parent or had bad parental supervision (odds ratio: 3.2). A lack of self-control at 18 years of age was joined with double the risk of death and disability by age 48 (odds ratio: 2.1). At age 32, self-reported criminal activity not picked up by the police, such as burglary, shoplifting, car theft, violence or vandalism, more than 4x the risk of death and disability by age 48 (odds ratio: 4.3).


"These findings indicate that by intervening in the development of delinquency we may be able to achieve more than a reduction in the likelihood of later offending, which is currently the goal of such interventions," Professor Shepherd said. "We should focus on improving parenting and tackling impulsivity in the early years, which may well improve long-term health, reduce costs to the health service and save lives."



By Abby Johnson, Angel Vaughn, and Daniele Marcato













24 comments:

  1. This is a bit confusing, but interesting. I don't really understand how delinquency as a child can cause earlier death. Delinquency is more of a psychological thing, not really something that would affect your body's health. I think further research could go into this experiment on the boy's lifestyles.

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  2. Im not fully understanding this. Are you saying that if someone's father goes to jail that they will have a premature death or disability when they reach the middle year of their life?

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  3. I agree with Irena it is not convincing

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  4. The ratio table was very unclear on the slideshow, and the point that is given is not very convincing. Other then that you guys did a good job explaining and elaborating on you idea.

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  5. I don't understand how they would be killed or disabled. Would it being during related to crime?

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  6. It was a very interesting topic, however, it was very difficult to understand the calculations.

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  7. This article was good, but i do not know if the evidence is able to be followed that easily. It was a very confusing topic for me but maybe i should try to re read it.

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  8. this topic is really interesting but i think at some points in the powerpoint it was confusing.

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  9. I think that the topic was very good, but some points were confusing. It also does not convince me enough.

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  10. This is intresting, but if I didn't become a convict right now, would I lower m chance of dying early or becoming disabled?

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  11. yeah, this was a little confusing, and why aren't studies like this done on girls?

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  12. I'm not surprised at this at all. Certain people are born with a more violent nature, and as a result, are more likely to try dangerous activities or even commit felonies, just as people who are born with a very addictive and experimental nature are more likely to end up involved in heavy drug use.

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  13. This is kind of scary. Im not saying that I'm a bad kid or anything, but I know I'm not perfect, and no one else is either. To me, this research is merely fluff and a way to make people pay more attention to their lives by scaring them. Although I do agree with points made in this presentation, I don't think that certain actions you do will predetermine your life's actions. Konstantine

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  14. Some felonies are dangerous and if people are committing dangerous felonies, of course they have a shorter life expectancy.

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  15. This topic was very interesting and the blog article was well-written. However, like Giancarlo said, the numbers elicited from the research does not convince me enough that there is a direct link. Also like abanx, I wonder why girls are not included in studies like this.

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  16. This topic is definitely worth further research but this article didn't convey enough information. Like Lily and Giancarlo said, the numbers from the research aren't convincing enough for me. The ideas were good and the content was good but there was more needed. I also like what Afemi said that it should be tested on girls too because maybe it has something to do with gender.

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  17. This is a very interesting topic, but I think it needs to be explained a little better.

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  18. I agree with Irena I dont understand how delinquency

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  19. I agree with Lily2014. I'm not completely convinced by the evidence given to support this.

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  20. I understand most of this presentation except for the ratio chart, which was very unclear to me when I first looked at it.

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  21. Very interesting but I am not convinced by the evidence. I agree they should have also tested on girls.

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  22. The article is good, but its a little bit confusing. Some parts are really hard to understand. And the evidence you gave in your slideshow doesn't exactly prove what your trying to get across.

    Good Work.

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  23. wow, this is so interesting. but i agree too with some of you, the evidence is not so convincing.

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  24. This is a very interesting idea but i don't think that the results are convincing enough to prove that this is true.

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